Dota 2 week 40/2026
Week 40/2026 recap (28.09.26 – 04.10.26): 21 Dota 2 matches had an Elo-based prediction, 14 of them correct, a 66.7% hit rate. Each row below shows the predicted winner, its win probability at the time and the actual result. Compared with week 39/2026 (59.7%), accuracy is up 7 percentage points.
Biggest upsets of week 40/2026
- Natus Vincere was predicted to win with 81.1% but lost 1–2 to Team Nemesis at BLAST Slam Season 8 2026.
- Natus Vincere was predicted to win with 71.2% but lost 1–2 to 1win at BLAST Slam Season 8 2026.
- Direborn was predicted to win with 69.4% but lost 0–2 to Yangon Galacticos at EPL World Series Southeast Asia season 18 2026.
Week 40/2026 breakdown
By confidence
Confidence is the win probability the model gave its pick before the match. A good model should be right more often in the high-confidence group.
By tournament
All week 40/2026 predictions
- BLAST Slam Season 8 2026Xtreme GamingvsLevel UP0 – 271.9%Correct
- BLAST Slam Season 8 2026PARIVISIONvsLGD Gaming2 – 065%Correct
- BLAST Slam Season 8 2026Natus VincerevsTeam Nemesis2 – 181.1%Wrong
- BLAST Slam Season 8 2026Team Spiritvs1win2 – 075%Correct
- EPL World Series Southeast Asia season 18 2026IvoryvsTeam Kinetix1 – 253.1%Wrong
- BLAST Slam Season 8 2026Team YandexvsMOUZ2 – 094.9%Correct
- BLAST Slam Season 8 2026BetBoom TeamvsOG2 – 166.9%Correct
- EPL World Series Southeast Asia season 18 2026DirebornvsInterActive Philippines1 – 262.5%Wrong
- EPL World Series Southeast Asia season 18 2026Yangon GalacticosvsCloud Dawning0 – 257.2%Correct
- BLAST Slam Season 8 2026Team LiquidvsYakult Brothers2 – 188.6%Correct
- BLAST Slam Season 8 2026AuroravsGamerLegion2 – 072.2%Correct
- BLAST Slam Season 8 2026LGD GamingvsXtreme Gaming2 – 161.3%Correct
- BLAST Slam Season 8 2026Natus Vincerevs1win2 – 171.2%Wrong
- BLAST Slam Season 8 2026PARIVISIONvsLevel UP2 – 089.8%Correct
- BLAST Slam Season 8 2026Team SpiritvsTeam Nemesis2 – 190%Correct
- EPL World Series Southeast Asia season 18 2026DirebornvsYangon Galacticos2 – 069.4%Wrong
- EPL World Series Southeast Asia season 18 2026InterActive PhilippinesvsYangon Galacticos1 – 253%Correct
- EPL World Series Southeast Asia season 18 2026Xipto EsportsvsTeam Kinetix0 – 274.6%Correct
- EPL World Series Southeast Asia season 18 2026ЯЧЁ123vsInterActive Philippines0 – 251.3%Wrong
- EPL World Series Southeast Asia season 18 2026Yangon GalacticosvsXipto Esports1 – 254.8%Wrong
- EPL World Series Southeast Asia season 18 2026DirebornvsTeam Kinetix2 – 170.1%Correct
Week 40/2026 FAQ
How accurate were the Dota 2 predictions in week 40/2026?
Week 40/2026 (28.09.26 – 04.10.26) had 21 matches predicted with Elo, 14 of them correct (66.7%). Compared with week 39/2026 (59.7%), accuracy is up 7 percentage points.
What was the biggest upset of week 40/2026?
Natus Vincere was predicted to win with 81.1% but lost 1–2 to Team Nemesis at BLAST Slam Season 8 2026.
How accurate is the model when it is at least 65% confident?
This week the model was right in 11 of 14 picks made at 65% or higher (79%).
How are the predictions made?
For each match the win probability comes from the two teams' Elo difference before the match (without that match's result); the team with the higher probability is the pick, which is then checked against the real result.