LoL week 40/2026
Week 40/2026 recap (28.09.26 – 04.10.26): 64 LoL matches had an Elo-based prediction, 43 of them correct, a 67.2% hit rate. Each row below shows the predicted winner, its win probability at the time and the actual result. Compared with week 39/2026 (66.1%), accuracy is up 1.1 percentage points.
Hit rate67.2%
Correct43/64
Upsets9
Dates28.09.26 – 04.10.26
Biggest upsets of week 40/2026
Week 40/2026 breakdown
By confidence
Confidence is the win probability the model gave its pick before the match. A good model should be right more often in the high-confidence group.
By tournament
All week 40/2026 predictions
- CBLOL Promotion 2027LOSvsKaBuM! Ilha das Lendas3 – 087.6%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026Team Heretics AcademyvsNightBirds2 – 166.1%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026Team PhantasmavsGamespace Mediterranean College Esports2 – 167%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026G2 NORDvsBOMBA Team2 – 075.8%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026HMBLEvsBarça eSports0 – 262.3%Wrong
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026UCAM Esports ClubvseSuba1 – 286.3%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026ValerionvsTLN Pirates2 – 054%Wrong
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026Unicorns Of Love Sexy EditionvsKaufland Hangry Knights2 – 066.3%Wrong
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026Ruddy CorporationvsPCIFIC0 – 156.7%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026Skillcamp EsportvsJSK Esports0 – 169.9%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026LodisvsColossal Gaming1 – 066.9%Wrong
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026Bushido WildcatsvsMAGAZA1 – 064.3%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026Frites Esports ClubvsThe Otter Side1 – 075.7%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026BIGvsSenshi Esports1 – 079.3%Correct
- World Star Challengers Invitational 2026GalionsvsT1 Academy3 – 155.1%Wrong
- World Star Challengers Invitational 2026SolaryvsDN SOOPers Challengers3 – 072.3%Correct
- Asian Games 2026South KoreavsHong Kong0 – 168.3%Correct
- Asian Games 2026Chinese TaipeivsIndia0 – 173.6%Correct
- Asian Games 2026South KoreavsIndia0 – 171.2%Correct
- Asian Games 2026Chinese TaipeivsHong Kong0 – 166.6%Correct
- Asian Games 2026Hong KongvsIndia0 – 150%Correct
- Asian Games 2026Chinese TaipeivsSouth Korea1 – 052.8%Wrong
- CBLOL Promotion 2027Estral Esportsvs9z Globant3 – 094.8%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026Team Heretics AcademyvsKarmine Corp Blue1 – 252.5%Wrong
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026White DragonsvseSuba2 – 061.2%Wrong
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026ForsakenvsThe Secret Club1 – 271.8%Wrong
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026TLN PiratesvsAnubis Gaming0 – 267.4%Wrong
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026UCAM Esports ClubvsBushido Wildcats1 – 067%Wrong
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026Kaufland Hangry KnightsvsThe Otter Side1 – 063%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026LodisvsTeam Phantasma0 – 158.4%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026HMBLEvsSenshi Esports0 – 171.2%Wrong
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026NightBirdsvsPCIFIC0 – 161.9%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026BIGvsBOMBA Team0 – 167.7%Wrong
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026Frites Esports ClubvsGamespace Mediterranean College Esports1 – 082.9%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026Unicorns Of Love Sexy EditionvsJSK Esports0 – 178.7%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026ValerionvsSkillcamp Esport1 – 061.7%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026SU EsportsvsColossal Gaming1 – 064.9%Wrong
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026Barça eSportsvsMAGAZA1 – 073.5%Wrong
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026G2 NORDvsRuddy Corporation1 – 069.5%Correct
- Asian Games 2026Saudi ArabiavsMalaysia1 – 059.4%Correct
- Asian Games 2026VietnamvsUnited Arab Emirates1 – 085%Correct
- Asian Games 2026VietnamvsMalaysia1 – 077.6%Correct
- Asian Games 2026United Arab EmiratesvsSaudi Arabia1 – 053%Wrong
- Asian Games 2026VietnamvsSaudi Arabia0 – 172.2%Correct
- Asian Games 2026United Arab EmiratesvsMalaysia1 – 053%Correct
- CBLOL Promotion 2027KaBuM! Ilha das LendasvsGolden Lions3 – 087.6%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026The Secret ClubvsGamespace Mediterranean College Esports0 – 151.3%Wrong
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026Barça eSportsvsForsaken0 – 160%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026Ruddy CorporationvsBushido Wildcats0 – 151.9%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026Unicorns Of Love Sexy EditionvsHMBLE0 – 151.8%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026Team Heretics AcademyvsValerion1 – 063.7%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026White DragonsvsColossal Gaming1 – 058.3%Wrong
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026Karmine Corp BluevsNightBirds1 – 063.7%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026BIGvsMAGAZA1 – 088.2%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026BOMBA TeamvsSU Esports1 – 050.6%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026TLN PiratesvsJSK Esports1 – 085.9%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026The Otter SidevsTeam Phantasma0 – 153.4%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026Kaufland Hangry KnightsvsSenshi Esports1 – 058%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026Anubis GamingvsSkillcamp Esport1 – 063.5%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026UCAM Esports ClubvsPCIFIC1 – 073.2%Wrong
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026LodisvseSuba0 – 156.7%Correct
- EMEA Masters Summer 2026Frites Esports ClubvsG2 NORD1 – 056.7%Wrong
- World Star Challengers Invitational 2026KT Rolster ChallengersvsGalions0 – 351.2%Wrong
- World Star Challengers Invitational 2026T1 AcademyvsCupid Esports3 – 153.8%Correct
Week 40/2026 FAQ
How accurate were the LoL predictions in week 40/2026?
Week 40/2026 (28.09.26 – 04.10.26) had 64 matches predicted with Elo, 43 of them correct (67.2%). Compared with week 39/2026 (66.1%), accuracy is up 1.1 percentage points.
What was the biggest upset of week 40/2026?
Barça eSports was predicted to win with 73.5% but lost 0–1 to MAGAZA at EMEA Masters Summer 2026.
How accurate is the model when it is at least 65% confident?
This week the model was right in 23 of 32 picks made at 65% or higher (72%).
How are the predictions made?
For each match the win probability comes from the two teams' Elo difference before the match (without that match's result); the team with the higher probability is the pick, which is then checked against the real result.