AoV week 16/2026
Week 16/2026 recap (13.04.26 – 19.04.26): 2 AoV matches had an Elo-based prediction, 1 of them correct, a 50% hit rate. Each row below shows the predicted winner, its win probability at the time and the actual result. Compared with week 15/2026 (66.7%), accuracy is down 16.7 percentage points.
Week 16/2026 breakdown
By confidence
Confidence is the win probability the model gave its pick before the match. A good model should be right more often in the high-confidence group.
By tournament
All week 16/2026 predictions
Some predictions this week were reconstructed by replaying the full match history in order, using the Elo rating each team held before that match.
Week 16/2026 FAQ
How accurate were the AoV predictions in week 16/2026?
Week 16/2026 (13.04.26 – 19.04.26) had 2 matches predicted with Elo, 1 of them correct (50%). Compared with week 15/2026 (66.7%), accuracy is down 16.7 percentage points.
How are the predictions made?
For each match the win probability comes from the two teams' Elo difference before the match (without that match's result); the team with the higher probability is the pick, which is then checked against the real result.