AoV week 35/2026

Week 35/2026 recap (24.08.26 – 30.08.26): 14 AoV matches had an Elo-based prediction, 10 of them correct, a 71.4% hit rate. Each row below shows the predicted winner, its win probability at the time and the actual result. Compared with week 34/2026 (66.7%), accuracy is up 4.7 percentage points.

Hit rate71.4%
Correct10/14
Upsets0
Dates24.08.26 – 30.08.26

Week 35/2026 breakdown

By confidence

  • Close (under 55%)1/3 33%
  • Lean (55–65%)4/6 67%
  • Clear (65% and up)5/5 100%

Confidence is the win probability the model gave its pick before the match. A good model should be right more often in the high-confidence group.

All week 35/2026 predictions

Some predictions this week were reconstructed by replaying the full match history in order, using the Elo rating each team held before that match.

Week 35/2026 FAQ

How accurate were the AoV predictions in week 35/2026?

Week 35/2026 (24.08.26 – 30.08.26) had 14 matches predicted with Elo, 10 of them correct (71.4%). Compared with week 34/2026 (66.7%), accuracy is up 4.7 percentage points.

How accurate is the model when it is at least 65% confident?

This week the model was right in 5 of 5 picks made at 65% or higher (100%).

How are the predictions made?

For each match the win probability comes from the two teams' Elo difference before the match (without that match's result); the team with the higher probability is the pick, which is then checked against the real result.

Other weeks